The global health landscape is undergoing a set of rapid and profound transitions that threaten to stall or even derail progress in global health improvement. The 4Ds project analyzes four of these major, inter-linked transitions—shifts in diseases, demography, development assistance for health (DAH), and domestic health financing:
- The global burden of disease is shifting away from infections to non-communicable diseases and injuries, although there is still an “unfinished agenda” of mortality in poor populations from infections and maternal and child health conditions
- There is a demographic transition involving ageing populations coupled with a bulge in the adolescent band of the population pyramid (the “youth bulge”); in some middle-income countries (MICs), like Jordan and Lebanon, migration related to conflict is also affecting this transition
- Over the next few years, more than a dozen MICs will graduate from multilateral DAH, even though many still have large pockets of poverty and high mortality and may have insufficient domestic capacity to tackle these challenges without external assistance
- It will cost low-income countries (LICs) and MICs an additional $371 billion annually in health spending by 2030 to reach the health-related Sustainable Development Goal targets, which will require a shift towards domestic financing of health; massively increased domestic financing will be needed, yet many countries have so far seen little mobilization of domestic resources for health.
Maintaining continued global health progress—and certainly achieving an acceleration in progress—will depend on how domestic and international health policymakers navigate these four critical transitions. These transitions cannot be managed in isolation as they are so closely tied with each other. All countries need an overarching, “joined up” strategic approach to transition that takes into account the likely shifts in disease burden and demography, how these shifts will affect health financing needs, and the mechanisms for meeting these needs.
The 4Ds project aims to generate data, evidence, and analysis to support policymakers in developing such a “joined” up strategy. Our center is partnering with universities, think tanks, and ministries of health and finance in six transitioning MICs: Ghana, India (focusing on Uttar Pradesh state), Kenya, Myanmar, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka.
Shashika Bandara, Center for Policy Impact in Global Health
Ipchita Bharali, Center for Policy Impact in Global Health
Siddharth Dixit, Center for Policy Impact in Global Health
Hanna Huffstetler, Center for Policy Impact in Global Health
Wenhui Mao, Center for Policy Impact in Global Health
Kaci Kennedy McDade, Center for Policy Impact in Global Health
Osondu Ogbuoji, Center for Policy Impact in Global Health
Gavin Yamey, Center for Policy Impact in Global Health
Click here to see how donors are approaching transition from aid? Over the next few years, more than a dozen MICs will graduate from multilateral DAH, even though many still have large pockets of poverty and high mortality and may have insufficient domestic capacity to tackle these challenges without external assistance.
Click here to see how countries are responding to COVID-19. Our Center has developed policy reports on Ghana, Kenya, Myanmar, Nigeria, and Sri Lanka (coming soon). Each country report details policy initiatives and recommendations for policymakers. How countries respond to COVID-19 will have a tremendous impact on their country’s health and economic well-being for decades to come.
Report: Bharali I, Selvaraj S, Kumar P, Mao W, Ogbuoji O, Yamey G. India’s health transition: Country impact profile. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Policy Report: April 2022. Available at: https://centerforpolicyimpact.org/indias-health-transitions-country-profile/
Report: Dixit S, Mao W, Ogbuoji O, Bharali I, Ogundeji Y, Yamey G. Nigeria’s health transitions: Country profile. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Report: March 2022. Available at: https://centerforpolicyimpact.org/nigerias-health-transitions-country-profile/
Data summary: Dixit S, Mao W, Ogbuoji O, Yamey G. Nigeria’s health transitions: Country data summary. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Report: March 2022. Available at: https://centerforpolicyimpact.org/nigerias-health-transitions-country-profile/
Publication: Abayasekara A, Bharali I, De Silva T, Mao W, Yamey G, Arunatilake NK. Identifying the knowledge, capacity, and policy gaps in the face of Sri Lanka’s health transitions and journey towards universal health coverage: A qualitative analysis. Social Science Research Network. (2021). Available at: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3971045
Data summary: McDade KK, Shahid M, Mao W, Ogira D, Onyango J, Wafula F, Kokwaro G, Yamey G, Ogbuoji O. Kenya’s health transitions: Country data summary. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Data Summary: November 2021. Available at: https://centerforpolicyimpact.org/kenyas-health-transition-country-profile/
Report: Shahid M, Ogira D, McDade KK, Bharali I, Mao W, Ogbuoji O, Yamey G. Transition in the time of COVID-19: Lessons from Kenya. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Dialogue report: October 2021. Available at: https://centerforpolicyimpact.org/our-work/kenya-transition-in-the-time-of-covid-19/
Report: Deshpande A, Mao W, Traill T, Kyaw ZL, Paing PY, Win ZM, Thura S, Ogbuoji O, Yamey G. Myanmar’s health transitions: Country profile. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Report: October 2021. Available at: https://centerforpolicyimpact.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/2021/10/Myanmar-LONG-4Ds-Country-Profile_FINAL.pdf
Publication: Selvaraj S, Karan AK, Mao W, Hasan H, Bharali I, Kumar P et al. Did the poor gain from India’s health policy interventions? Evidence from benefit-incidence analysis, 2004–2018. International Journal for Equity in Health. (2021) 20:159. Available at: https://equityhealthj.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12939-021-01489-0.pdf
Report: McDade KK, Mao W, et. al. Kenya’s health transitions: Country profile. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Report: June 2020. Available at: https://centerforpolicyimpact.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/18/2021/06/Kenya-4Ds-Country-Profile_FINAL.pdf
Blog: Mao W, McDade KK, Hille H, Zapeda M. Do transition readiness assessment tools inform donor transitions in health care? Brookings Future Development Blog. April 30 2021. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2021/04/30/do-transition-readiness-assessment-tools-inform-donor-transitions-in-health-care/
Blog: Vitsupakorn S, Mao W, Bharali I. Early lessons from India’s health insurance scheme, Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana. Brookings Future Development Blog. April 29 2021. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2021/04/29/early-lessons-from-indias-health-insurance-scheme-pradhan-mantri-jan-arogya-yojana/
Report: McDade KK, Kleidermacher P, Mao W, Yamey G. Estimating Chinese bilateral aid for health: an analysis of AidData’s Global Chinese Official Finance Dataset. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Duke Global Working Paper Series: number 38, March 2021. Available at: https://centerforpolicyimpact.org/estimating-chinese-bilateral-aid-for-health-an-analysis-of-aiddatas-global-chinese-official-finance-dataset/
Blog: McDade KK, Munge K, Kokwaro G, Ogbuoji O. Reducing Kenya’s health system dependence on donors. Brookings Future Development. Weblog. 2021. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2021/03/02/reducing-kenyas-health-system-dependence-on-donors/?preview_id=1424135
Report: McDade KK, Munge K, Kokwaro G, Ogbuoji O. Development finance in transition: Donor dependency and concentration in Kenya’s health sector. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Duke Global Working Paper Series: number 29, February 2021. Available at: https://centerforpolicyimpact.org/our-work/transition-donor-dependency-kenyas-health/
Report: Kenney C, McDade KK, Mao W, Ogbuoji O, Yamey G. Making the final decade of the Sustainable Development Goals count: an analysis of donors’ subnational approaches to reaching the poorest people. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Duke Global Working Paper Series: number 28, January 2021. Available at: https://centerforpolicyimpact.org/our-work/aid-targeting-approaches-to-reach-the-poorest/
Report: Mao W, McDade KK, Zepeda M, Zhang X, Bharali I, Ogbuoji O, Yamey G. Transitioning from health aid: a scoping review of transition readiness assessment tools. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Duke Global Working Paper Series: number 27, January 2021. Available at: https://centerforpolicyimpact.org/our-work/transitioning-from-health-aid-scoping-review-of-transition-readiness-assessment-tools/
Report: McDade KK, Ogbuoji O, Yamey G. How will COVID-19 affect the future of global health aid? The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Dialogue report: January 2021. Available at: https://centerforpolicyimpact.org/our-work/covid-19-and-the-future-of-global-health-aid/
Report: Deshpande A, Traill T, Thura S, Kyaw ZL, La T, Win ZM, Chit PT, Bandara S, Mao W, Ogbuoji O, Yamey G. Myanmar’s policy response to COVID-19. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Policy Report: October 2020. Available at: https://centerforpolicyimpact.org/our-work/the-4ds/myanmar-policy-response-to-covid-19/
Report: McDade KK, Ogira D, Onyango J, Ojal J, Kokwaro G, Mao W, Yamey G. Kenya’s policy response to COVID-19. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Policy Report: August 2020. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Policy Report: August 2020 Available at: http://centerforpolicyimpact.org/our-work/the-4ds/kenya-policy-response-to-covid-19/
Blog: Zhang J, Nonvignon J, and Mao W. How well is Ghana—with one of the best testing capacities in Africa—responding to COVID-19? Brookings Future Development. Weblog. 2020. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/07/28/how-well-is-ghana-with-one-of-the-best-testing-capacities-in-africa-responding-to-covid-19/?preview_id=948409
Report: Zhang J, Nonvignon J, Dixit S, Mao W, Yamey G. Ghana’s policy response to COVID-19. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Policy Report: July 2020 Available at: http://centerforpolicyimpact.org/our-work/the-4ds/ghana-policy-response-to-covid-19/
Blog: Bharali I, Kumar P, Selvaraj S. How well is India responding to COVID-19? Brookings Future Development. Weblog. 2020. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/07/02/how-well-is-india-responding-to-covid-19/
Report: Bharali I, Kumar P, Selvaraj S, Mao W, Ogbuoji O, Yamey G. India’s policy response to COVID-19. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Policy Report: June 2020 Available at: http://centerforpolicyimpact.org/our-work/the-4ds/indias-policy-response-to-covid-19/
Blog: Dixit S, Ogundeji YK, Onwujekwe O. How well has Nigeria responded to COVID-19? Brookings Future Development. Weblog. 2020. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2020/07/02/how-well-has-nigeria-responded-to-covid-19/
Report: Dixit S, Ogundeji YK, Onwujekwe O, Ezenwanfor C, Ohiri K, Ogbuoji O, Mao W, Bharali I, Yamey G. Nigeria’s policy response to COVID-19. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Policy Report: June 2020. Available at: http://centerforpolicyimpact.org/our-work/the-4ds/nigeria-policy-response-to-covid-19/
Research article: Oladele TT, Olakunde BO, Oladele EA, Ogbuoji O, Yamey G. The impact of COVID-19 on HIV financing in Nigeria: a call for proactive measures. BMJ Global Health. 2020;5:e002718. Available at: https://gh.bmj.com/content/5/5/e002718
Editorial: Yamey G, Ogbuoji O, Nonvignon J. Middle-income countries graduating from health aid: transforming daunting challenges into smooth transitions. PLoSMed. 2019; 16(6):e1002837. Available from: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1002837
Editorial: Bandara S, Huffstetler H, McDade KK, Mao W. The “4Ds” that threaten middle-income countries. The Center for Policy Impact in Global Health. Weblog. 2019. Available from: http://centerforpolicyimpact.org/2019/06/28/4ds-that-threaten-mics/
- Sarah Blodgett Bermeo, Associate Professor, Sanford School of Public Policy, Associate Professor of Political Science, Duke University
- Maria Eugenia Bonilla-Chacin, Chief Economist, GFF, World Bank
- Jesse Boardman Bump, Lecturer on Global Health Policy, Department of Global Health & Population, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
- Erica Field, Professor of Economics, Economics Department, Duke University
- Daniel Kress, Economist & Health Systems Expert, Former Senior Director, RTI & Deputy Director, Global Primary healthcare and Financing, Gates Foundation
- David McAdams, Professor at Business Administration & Economics, Duke Fuqua School of Business & Economics Department
- Myaing Nyunt, Associate Professor, Medicine and Global Health, Duke Global Health Institute (based in Myanmar/Duke)
- Jonathan Quick, Senior Fellow & former President and CEO, MSH, former Essential Medicines Director, WHO
- Helen Saxenian, Economist, R4D; Gavi consultant (Learning Network for Countries in Transition), formerly at World Bank
- Seth Terkper, Ghana’s former Finance Minister, Executive Director & Founder, PFM-TAX Africa Network
- Erik Wibbels, Robert O. Keohane Professor of Political Science, Duke University
- Albert G. Zeufack, Chief Economist for Africa, World Bank Group
This project is funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Questions? Please contact Gavin Yamey.
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